PG acknowledged that growth is limited by market size. Markets to support "avogadrillionaire" level wealth may not current exist.
However, there obviously exist markets to support billionaire level wealth, as evidenced by the at least 30 billionaires produced by YC, and the many others.
No, because they are ultimately constrained by outputs that can be delivered or (assuming claims on future economic output into the market) the money supply that can be assigned to the future output. Even with leverage I couldn't ask my bank to loan me 6e23 USD without a lot more stuff having to happen first.
There are markets that can grow fast of course, but once that exceeds the overall economy it can only come from forcing other markets to shrink, and that limits the growth rate to which the fast-growing market can ultimately attain.
I hardly notice DeepSeek being inferior to Claude Opus unless I have it working on tricky and under-defined problems. That is, I trust Opus to reason much better when it has the choice. Otherwise, IME DeepSeek is far cheaper and more effective for anything where the solution is even somewhat obvious.
Out of curiosity, what is your stack? And is this in a legacy project or new one?
I have tried using deep seek flash and pro but they make amateur mistakes. Sonnet level at best.
However v4 flash is absolutely amazing as a generalist model and it’s what we’re using on a product built on top of LLMs. I wish I could code with it but it’s not going to happen anytime soon
I've used it across many new projects as well as many legacy ones. It does make amateur mistakes so you can't leave it unsupervised for hours like I do with Claude, but it's so much cheaper that weeks of heavy usage haven't even cost me $10 yet. Only other downside IMO is that Pro is pretty slow, even compared to frontier models; only around 120t/s IIRC.
Yes I also noticed it is pretty slow, which sort of defeated the purpose of using it for me.
Usually I'm working on a large task, typically with Opus, while also having a bunch of smaller tasks in their own independent worktrees. Those still need supervision, but less. My goal was to get deepseek to drive the cost of those down, but it was too slow and unreliable...
Yes, I could tolerate the unreliability better if it were faster, but it's really not. So it's too slow for me to actively supervise it, but too unreliable for me to trust it unsupervised. The shitty middle. I often have multiple of them open at a time and check my terminal every few minutes to lead them along. Mostly works.
The first part, describes a decision to ask AI over calling a good friend and domain expert. Typically the domain expert is not an option. (looking at my last 10 Claude chats, I knew a domain expert for one of them).
The second part assumes AI writing can substitute mastery of writing, and simultaneously, not be good enough.
We have, for a several thousand years, continued to develop labor and cost saving technology. We have been OK thus far.
In the "What's next?" section, "There’s still more to be done: we’re working on developing and releasing models that provide many of the same capabilities as Opus at a lower cost."
I wanted to ask someone about the firepass subscription. It implies unlimited usage - sounds too good to be true. Is it? Can you leave your agent running all day?
I’m not entirely sure TBH. But I’ve been running huge loads against it and haven’t hit a limit yet. It’s far more stable and generous than Claude. And it’s fast, in a noticeable way. It’s $7/week and I’d rather run out of quota than get a surprise big bill. Still churning.
However, there obviously exist markets to support billionaire level wealth, as evidenced by the at least 30 billionaires produced by YC, and the many others.
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