Can you back out $12?? I would put the BOM closer to $6 if I'm going with the high estimate, and more than half of that cost will be driven by the ATMEL and OLED.
You're absolutely right, I was far too generous. For a sensible size of production run, your $6 figure is much closer to the mark. I made some faulty assumptions about the amortized cost of tooling for the plastics and over-estimated the cost of both the OLED module and the li-po.
In my (pointless and lousy) defence, I'd say that I'm used to making extremely conservative estimates, because nobody ever got fired for coming in early or under budget.
