I'm quite fond of Tabarrok's quote about bets being a tax on bullshit.

So, what are we supposed to learn from things that don't affect 99.9% of people? What exactly are you hinting at? If you've learned something from history that others haven't and that is germane to the situation, are you willing to bet money on it?

I'm sure someone will take the other side of the bet, that way we don't have to deal with the "kids these days" type of rhetoric that doesn't really prove anything about anything.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came_...

I'm not sure what I'm supposed to understand. Some guy was unfairly treated at an airport. A common occurrence in the US, so it seems. Now that story gets blown out of proportions (there are many similar cases no one ever reports here), and suddenly we're on a the verge of a genocide. Let's assume that's true. What prediction would you make and how much would you bet on it that would confirm this hypothesis is right? How likely is it that it's just some TSA agent ego-tripping?

> How likely is it that it's just some TSA agent ego-tripping?

Very likely. And that's exactly the point.

Ego tripping and law enforcement should be kept apart at every opportunity.

For you this got blown out of proportion, because it does not affect you. But if it ever will affect you then I hope you will remember this thread and what it feels like when you're part of the 0.1% and nobody gives a fuck.

And everybody is part of some 0.1%, even if you haven't figured it out yet.

I'm Iranian American, you are being hysterical. This story is blown out of proportion and you are treating it like we are on the verge of Hitler rising up from the grave and donning the red white and blue.

Let's see:

- many tens of billions extra will be spent on armaments (America first, sure)

- nationalism is at a roughly 70 year high in the Western world

- as is xenophobia

- in many countries politicians of extremely dubious character are waiting in the wings with elections around the corner

You're treating it like it is business as usual. And I can assure you that it is not. I haven't seen this kind of alignment as long as I've been alive.

Now let's hope things will get better before they get worse.

I don't see what you being an Iranian American has anything to do with it though, for all I care you could be born in Brooklyn or Paris, it would not make any difference to me.

And if you feel this story is blown out of proportion then I hope that your family is with you and will not attempt to join you anywhere in the next couple of years, noting how Iran was part of the not-Muslim ban.

- The US is currently bombing 7 countries. Tensions are heating up in eastern Europe due to Russian aggression and NATO expansion in the region. This is happening no matter what just because the American empire is losing power and regional powers are attempting to flex more muscle. - I honestly don't find nationalism to be an inherit evil. Nationalism is a tool in the political playbook just like any other. I am not saying that going from 0 to fascist is ok, but we have been sitting at about a 4 for a while now and it probably just got cranked up to a 6. - The Xenophobia has always been there. Growing up after 9/11 my family stuck american flags on our cars as a precaution against vandalism. I think what people are seeing is the lower 'deplorable' classes finally got equal access to mass communication that many of us have enjoyed for years and we are seeing those old tensions getting pushed to the front of our political dialog. Before now people in well to do areas could just ignore it. Also xenophobia isn't a unilateral thing, race relations in the US are terrible and small groups of every racial demographic make life hard for non racists in other demographics. I also think a lot of this, at least on the internet, has to do with push back against what is viewed as an overbearing cultural force from the political left. It's now edgy to be an ironic neo-nazi on the internet and if you tweet nazi memes at a journalist you might end up on the front of the NYT. - I'm fearful of Wilders more than anyone else up and coming on the world stage right now. Trump I think is overblown and I don't know much about Le Pen besides some of the questionable history of her party and her role in 'reforming' it.

Me being an Iranian american is relevant to this because we are one of the number one groups of people targeted in times like this in the US. Iran is a hostile geopolitical power to the US domination of middle eastern affairs. We are frequently singled out for likely 'terrorist' activities because of the mix of Islam, skin color and the past few administrations have been hinting that they are edging for conflict with Iran. If anyone is going to get rounded up into interment camps in the US it will probably be people like me.

Agreed on Wilders.

As for the rest, I see one silver lining around almost all of the clouds which is that Trump & Company are absolutely incompetent. That's the only thing that's keeping things afloat right now, if they get their act together all bets are off.