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This version of 2,3,4 are one set of possibilities focusing on younger entrepreneurs. As was noted recently https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1679422

"Our primary finding is that successful entrepreneurs are middle-aged, not young. The mean founder age for the 1 in 1,000 fastest growing new ventures is 45.0."

2,3,4 can be more generalized to be: "have access to sufficient capital to address the opportunity". Which in general I would guess that there are more 45-year olds with access to entrepreneurial capital in some form than there are younger entrepreneurs in the original stipulation of 2,3,4.

You can look even further ahead. Because the past few decades have been so strongly concentrating wealth upwards, one might predict that there will be fewer individuals with the personally owned capital to start businesses so the number and the 'risk level' of ventures to be shifting downward over time. The risk level would go down because the commitments of capital become more committee based the more people need to approve of it - and so you get fewer Elon Musk type investments, and more safe-looking investments in better paperclips (or the next social network ad app...).



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