Boeing’s final 747 rolled out of the company’s cavernous factory north of Seattle Tuesday night as airlines’ push for more fuel-efficient planes ends the more than half-century production run of the jumbo jet.
The B747-8 is pretty fuel-efficient. As is the A380.
The smaller two-engine jets have grown bigger and fly now further. Therefore the B747 and A380 operate mostly between the big hubs far away with many passengers, fitting the design profile. Deutsche Lufthansa and Korean Air operating happily with the B747-8i and the plane works reliable.
Reliability:
The B777X is delayed, the B787 suffers quality problems and "lost tools", paint goes off (both B787 and A350), the engine problems on the A320neo seem solved some time ago and then the MCAS on the B737-Max is another sad story.
Lufthansa solved it delivery issues with the B787 by buying used ones. And the B747 just looks like a Queen, graceful and elegant :)
The end of 747 production was “inevitable but it would be a little more palatable if they were making something new,” said Richard Aboulafia, managing director at consulting firm AeroDynamic Advisory.
Let us hope so. At some point aging existing feels need replacement and transportation between big hubs remains important. My recommendation about the 747, watch the freight loading before boarding. It is incredible how much freight (I don't mean baggage) fits into this plane while traveling across the Atlantic and transporting 450 passengers at the same time.
I haven't kept up, but my understanding was flights keep shrinking. Planes were flying near-empty, or even completely empty to maintain hangar contracts on either end. Making them bigger also increases the minimum fuel needed. Smaller planes can be used to respond to changes in demand and popularity of destinations in a way huge planes can't.
The "hub" model is disappearing; customers travel to the supposed hub via other methods (car, train) or they take direct flights. The super jumbo planes like the 747 rely on hubs for passenger density so it shouldn't be any surprise that most airlines aren't interested.
Having more smaller planes lets you do more direct flights and gives you way more flexibility should you need to change destinations, lease an empty plane to someone else, etc. It also costs you less in fuel when you need to fly it with few or no passengers.
Of course getting _any_ new plane means a years-long backlog right now so the newest trend is to acquire a regional or small airline and dismantle it purely to get the airplanes. Virgin America (by Alaska) and Spirit (by JetBlue) were victims of that strategy and won't be the last.
Hubs are not disappearing. NWR, JFK, FRA, CDG, LHR, LAX and so on are hubs and major destinations, served with long range, high capacity wide body planes. The middle-east airports are a special case, they are mostly hubs and the business relies on being a hub and not being the destination. This is why Emirates already asks for a A380 successor. Bonus, the airlines need only one slot and one crew to fly a plane from/to this hubs instead of multiple planes. And with four engines you get a bigger safety margin in case of "bad things happen".
And as you write, smaller planes better serving less loaded destinations, it allows airlines to fit customer demand. As you said. Better fly four times the week than just two times and lose half of the passenger to a competitor. And yes, they need to maintain only two engines.
The 777X is therefore an interesting design decision. Really big, only two very powerful engines and they need to handle the extra complexity and maintenance of folding wingtips. Just to fit the plane into smaller airports.
The biggest change so far is engine power, efficiency and reliability. Passenger and freight demands are changing even more frequently. And airports often cannot grow and even if - only slowly.
The smaller two-engine jets have grown bigger and fly now further. Therefore the B747 and A380 operate mostly between the big hubs far away with many passengers, fitting the design profile. Deutsche Lufthansa and Korean Air operating happily with the B747-8i and the plane works reliable. Reliability: The B777X is delayed, the B787 suffers quality problems and "lost tools", paint goes off (both B787 and A350), the engine problems on the A320neo seem solved some time ago and then the MCAS on the B737-Max is another sad story.
Lufthansa solved it delivery issues with the B787 by buying used ones. And the B747 just looks like a Queen, graceful and elegant :)
Let us hope so. At some point aging existing feels need replacement and transportation between big hubs remains important. My recommendation about the 747, watch the freight loading before boarding. It is incredible how much freight (I don't mean baggage) fits into this plane while traveling across the Atlantic and transporting 450 passengers at the same time.