> I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong .

Appealing to your sense of whether predictions are correct is a conversation starter at best. We can track forecasts and see how accurate they are.

Anyway, here are two IMF working papers:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&c...

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&c...