Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

If you calculate the true price of an item faster than the market can you would make billions of the stock market.

Some of the world's brightest minds, an entire industry has worked on the problem and can still barely beat the S&P 500. So I dont think we can or have the capability right to do such a thing.



The process involves collecting and sharing information in a cooperative (not competitive) way. In a capitalist system, one of the roles of government at best is to regulate industries to encourage competition. Under capitalism, sharing information cooperatively usually looks like collusion or corruption, so we necessarily need laws preventing that.

A planned economy just doesn't make sense at all within a capitalist system, so there probably would be no stock markets, and no one would make billions.


You need material non-public information to do that accurately. It turns out that when you do have material non public information, it's really quite easy to beat the S&P 500, but we have to put people in jail for that because it would destroy capital markets otherwise.


This assertion is based on a rational market, which it's pretty clear we don't have. I think it's possible to 'outcalculate' a rational market. I don't think it's possible to consistently predict the circus we have instead.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: