> you are asserting fundamental physics prevents it from happening?
Yes. The chemistry of burning fuel vs batteries is very different. Even though engines are much less efficient, that doesn't make up for how much more dense fuel that you burn is. (you could perhaps burn the battery, but that would be a very different thing, and probably too toxic to consider in the real world)
> I expect to see my local GA manufacturer start pumping out battery electric planes.
Since GA airplanes are currently being made at a rate of about 3000/year you could be right and yet not make any dent in total airplanes.
>Within 10 years it will be reasonably possible to get yourself on an electric plane.
Maybe, but those airplanes will have a very limited range. For most aviation uses range is important - by the time you get to the airport, run all the preflight checklists: you could have driven the same distance as the range of an electric plane, and the electric plane hasn't even got off the ground yet! There are short range niches where this is acceptable, and they will switch to electric planes for sure.
> Regional electric planes will start replacing older planes. The like 20-seater type size.
RANGE RANGE RANGE. Most people who get in a 20 seat plane are going far enough that electric can't make the trip. Batteries are too heavy, and this is the physics of the chemistry that innovation cannot work around no matter how much you want to ignore the laws of physics and chemistry.
Yes. The chemistry of burning fuel vs batteries is very different. Even though engines are much less efficient, that doesn't make up for how much more dense fuel that you burn is. (you could perhaps burn the battery, but that would be a very different thing, and probably too toxic to consider in the real world)
> I expect to see my local GA manufacturer start pumping out battery electric planes.
Since GA airplanes are currently being made at a rate of about 3000/year you could be right and yet not make any dent in total airplanes.
>Within 10 years it will be reasonably possible to get yourself on an electric plane.
Maybe, but those airplanes will have a very limited range. For most aviation uses range is important - by the time you get to the airport, run all the preflight checklists: you could have driven the same distance as the range of an electric plane, and the electric plane hasn't even got off the ground yet! There are short range niches where this is acceptable, and they will switch to electric planes for sure.
> Regional electric planes will start replacing older planes. The like 20-seater type size.
RANGE RANGE RANGE. Most people who get in a 20 seat plane are going far enough that electric can't make the trip. Batteries are too heavy, and this is the physics of the chemistry that innovation cannot work around no matter how much you want to ignore the laws of physics and chemistry.