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Very strongly doubt it - decisions like these probably only benefit Netanyahu's rally around the flag effect. If it feels like the whole world is against you, you rally to your leaders.


Nethanyahu is survivalist but he faces uphill battle as time passes.

The fact that Hamas attack was so successful under his watch has not disappeared.

His career is full of scandals and corruption. He is still going to have domestic charges in near future.

His war cabinet is going to collapse soon if he continues without any plans for the future of Gaza.


But he's in power, still. His career has been "over" for years now.


On the other hand, half of Israelis disapprove of Nethanyahu. The "warrant" would also be >something< all opposition would have agaisnt him

https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/artic...

  (grain of salt)


Significant portions of those disapproving are people who want to intensify the war in Gaza, so I doubt an ICC warrant would make them more opposed to Netanyahu.

Think it is easy in the US to think Israeli public opinion somehow mirrors the US but the vast majority of people in Israel right now are pro-war (similar to the US post-9/11) and anti-two state

e: not sure why I'm downvoted for something that can easily be confirmed by googling polls


> Significant portions of those disapproving are people who want to intensify the war in Gaza, so I doubt an ICC warrant would make them more opposed to Netanyahu.

Israel has a multi-party legislature. Netanyahu can be outflanked on the right.


> Netanyahu can be outflanked on the right

He was outflanked by the right in 2019 when Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Lapid's Yamina withdrew it's support for Likud and joined Bennett's and Lapid's anti-Netanyahu coalition in 2021, but Bibi was able to leverage fringe Kahanist and Mizrahi parties to reclaim the top seat.

Hell, Bibi would make a coalition with the Arab List/Ra'am (the Islamist Party in Israel) if it meant remaining PM (and thus retaining immunity)

Traditionally, the hard right Jewish parties would always win around 20 seats in Knesset but would never be a major part of any coalition - but Bibi has alienated just about every single faction in Israel at this point trying to extend his rule.


Certainly, but if he is outflanked on the right it won't be because of the ICC arrest warrant. If anything, that might help prevent him from being outflanked on the right.


> half of Israelis disapprove of Nethanyahu

Yeah but part of that half probably supports Gallant, who has split with Netanyahu, but is also charged alongside him.




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