> time in the market always beats timing the market
> The implicit assumption in that refrain is that,
Only if you were fine with waiting 50-100 years. The market in 1950 was more or less at the same level in real terms as in 1906, of course dividends were way higher back in those days. If we take that into:
e.g. if you invested 200$ in S&P 500 in 1906 adjusted by inflation in 1950 you would have had ~$1570 in 1950. Which is an average annual return of ~4.7% which is not terrible but you would have made approximately the same by buying high grade corporate bonds just with way less volatility.
Only if you were fine with waiting 50-100 years. The market in 1950 was more or less at the same level in real terms as in 1906, of course dividends were way higher back in those days. If we take that into:
e.g. if you invested 200$ in S&P 500 in 1906 adjusted by inflation in 1950 you would have had ~$1570 in 1950. Which is an average annual return of ~4.7% which is not terrible but you would have made approximately the same by buying high grade corporate bonds just with way less volatility.