You’re acting as if computing power isn’t going to get better. With time training the models will get faster.
Let me use CG rendering as an example. Back in the day only the big companies could afford to do photoreal 3D rendering because only they had access to the compute and even then it would take days to render a frame.
Eventually people could do these renders at home with consumer hardware but it still took forever to render.
Now we can render photoreal with path tracing at near realtime speeds.
If you could go back twenty years and show CG artists the Unreal Engine 5 and show them it’s all realtime they would lose their minds.
I see the same for A.I., now it’s only the big companies that can do it, then we will be able to do it at home but it will be slow and finally we will be able to train it at home for quick and cheap.
The flipside to that metaphor is that high-end CG productions never stopped growing in scope to fill bigger and better hardware - yes you can easily render CG from back in the day on a shoestring budget now, but rendering Avatar 2 a couple of years ago still required a cluster with tens of thousands of CPU cores. Unless there's a plateau in the amount of compute you can usefully pour into training a model, those with big money to spend are always going to be several steps ahead of what us mere mortals can do.
Let me use CG rendering as an example. Back in the day only the big companies could afford to do photoreal 3D rendering because only they had access to the compute and even then it would take days to render a frame.
Eventually people could do these renders at home with consumer hardware but it still took forever to render.
Now we can render photoreal with path tracing at near realtime speeds.
If you could go back twenty years and show CG artists the Unreal Engine 5 and show them it’s all realtime they would lose their minds.
I see the same for A.I., now it’s only the big companies that can do it, then we will be able to do it at home but it will be slow and finally we will be able to train it at home for quick and cheap.