1. When equities crash, market liquidity floods the bond market causing yields to drop
2. Refinance debt at these lower rates massively reducing interest burden
3. Cut government spending to cause rates to drop further
4. Reduced rates with a balanced budget results in non-inflationary borrowing and an economic upswing
Along the way, eliminate taxes for those earning below $150k.
If all of the above happens at the expense of equity holders so be it.
This plan has been made clear by multiple people from within the administration (namely Bessent who is one of the greatest macro investors of all time).
Now there’s many things to criticize in this plan (and lots of risk and unknown possible second order effects), but to describe it as “genuine chaos” or ineptitude is strange.
My understanding is that the loopholes exist because international trade exists and therefore capital can be juggled through various different states to avoid the tax payments. That is, it's outside the legislative scope of any single set of law makers.
Many people share the worldview that those who are higher up in the hierarchy of power are the most capable or deserving of such positions.
So when those leaders start acting in a way that is irrational or clearly damaging, there's a pretty strong cognitive dissonance. There are two ways to deal with it:
- Assume that, since they're the higher-ups, they must know what they're doing. Therefore there must be some sort of plan that you're not able or supposed to understand.
- Reassess the notion that the higher-ups are always the most capable or deserving people, and assume there's a chance for inept people to access positions of power.
The first one is the path of least resistance, since it doesn't require challenging a fundamental pillar of your worldview.
This regime is one Man, tRump, who surrounded himself by yes men. He doesn't have any sort of negative feedback cycle now to keep a cap on how much damage he can do to the economy. Either they owe him something, they are part of the MAGA cult, or they stand to make money by bending the knee (like Bezos and Zuck and Husk).
These people all have a shared idea of what they're doing, and since they sit in financially-backed echo chambers, those ideas eventually turn so absurd that they appear to have no idea of what they're doing.
Occam's razor suggests that they just have no idea what they're doing.