It seems the maximum likelihood model is a political one and not an economic one. Trump likes making deals and he historically has made them by applying his leverage and bullying people to go his way. Now he has the most powerful office in the world and a lot of leverage to bully anyone he wants (universities, law firms, other countries). Lots of lunch money will be taken but no one's going to go near the bully anymore.

At the end of the day, it's about Trump's need for attention and ability to wield power, rather than any economic objective. Tariffs are a way to wield significant power without requiring the approval of Congress.